Powell moved the Treasury Curve

I would like to share with you excerpts from Mott Capital article published in Seeking Alpha:

Powell finally delivered a direct message. In his Jackson Hole speech, in the opening paragraph, he made it clear that his remarks would be shorter and the message would be more direct. That it was. Very simply, rates still have further to rise, and once there, they will stay there for some time.

Futures, bonds, and dollar markets were already picking up on that message. The only market left...


Vaclav Smil is the man who has quietly tried to shape how the world thinks about energy.

IMPORTANT!: Please note, that the following graph has a nonlinear axis - each line grows in order of magnitude. Think about it, then it will for sure hit you !!! It is mildly depressing that he published this graph in 2015, at the time when science was supposed to be settled.

"The transition from wood ("traditional biofuels") to fossil fuels—first coal, then oil and natural gas—took more than a century. Today, fossil energy is dominant, with wind and solar making up a mere sliver...


E3 Lithium begins drilling the first lithium evaluation well in Alberta.

Alberta's leading lithium developer and Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology innovator are pleased to announce it has started drilling the first lithium evaluation well in Alberta. The well will be completed in E3's Clearwater Project area, east of the Town of Olds, Alberta. Drilling operations are expected to be completed by mid-July. Following drilling, a service rig will be moved on-site to commence testing of the formation to verify brine chemistry and flow rates.

"We are...


Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Growing Over 10x The Rate of Incomes

Canadian Home Prices and Household Income

Long-term wage growth has been disappointing, to say the least, but it’s more of a recent phenomenon. Disposable income grew 79.1% from 2005 to Q4 2021, and 789.3% since 1975.

More bluntly put, 90% of wage growth in the past 46 years came from the first 65% of that period. The remaining 35% only resulted in 10% of total growth. The Great Stagnation of Household Income or A Great Inflation of Asset Wealth.


The indexed value of r...


Canada’s Impossible Housing Proposal Makes No Sense

Canada’s Federal Housing Plan Won’t Happen

The prominent economist warns the public not to get too excited since the plan won’t happen. “Dollars to doughnuts this won’t happen, and not for lack of good intentions,” he said. “Canadian completions are already running at the highest level since the 1970s, and will possibly push through that mark soon given there are 340k units (a record) under construction,” said Kavcic.

He shared three key reasons this...


Inflation Is More Complicated Than Thought, Recovery May Be Delayed: Bank Of Canada

Better Dwelling published a very funny article about the Inflation. I liked it namely because of the last paragraph which I found extremely funny:

"The Inflation Is Temporary… But Persistent?  

Got it. Inflation doesn’t exist, but if it does it’s just temporary… but there’s no foreseeable end. I know, it sounds confusing. Yet, that’s what he said during the Q&A.. “… we do expect that these effects will be temporary even if they...


Falling Canadian Home Sales May Lead To Slowing Price Growth

As you could see from the graph I posted in my previous blog, the activity slowed down in the last 4 months. The statistics you are receiving in newspapers, usually reprint some analysts from big financial houses. An example is a Bloomberg-based article that quotes Shaun Cathcart, the national real estate bord's senior economist, who said:

"We are not returning to normal, we are only returning to where we were before COVID, which was a far cry from normal".

I completely agree, we are in no man's land...


Bubble or just organic secular growth connected to inflation?

 The Canmore housing market went within one month from a crazy binge to a screeching slowdown. For people who put the houses recently on the market, the big question is "Is it just a demonstration of relief of hundreds of thousands of Canadians taking finally holidays, being able to travel and breathe without a mask? Or is it a breather, and pause of the market before another busy autumn?  Or is it a beginning of the correction after a very long appreciation?". 

According to Better...


June 2021 Update on Canmore housing market

The Latest RE/MAX 2021 RECREATIONAL PROPERTY REPORT published at the end of last month is very upbeat about the Canmore housing market.  I would not elaborate on what is causing this sharp price spike, but while the trend started before the COVID-19, it recently accelerated and will continue at least till the rest of this calendar year.

REMAX Report Table for Canmore

Here is the full quote from the REPORT (I have highlighted what I believe is most interesting in yellow):

"A majority of Western Canada’s recreational markets...


What do the Pine Beetle and OPEC have in common? Read more and you will get the answer!

If you are complaining about (buyers) or cheering for (sellers) rocketing prices of houses, you should know that one reason for price escalation is the cost of lumber. Lumber futures quadrupled since the last year and retail prices at least doubled, if not tripled. According to the Canadian Home Builders Association, the cost of lumber added about $30,000 in Canada and US$36,000 in the USA to the price of the new house! The difference is caused by us being the exporter. Canadian SPF (Spruce/Pine/Fir)...


My take: Canmore properties sales and prices will continue to trend high for the rest of this year.

In my last blog, I shared with you some basic statistics regarding our current market. I am reading a lot of sources and they all point in one direction only. The trend is up. Here are a few quotes from Calgary Herald article written by J.Schlesinger:

“Royal LePage’s 2021 Spring Recreational Price Forecast predicts Alberta recreational properties, which include Canmore, will see price increases of about six percent, year over year, to an aggregate price of more than $942,000 this year....


CANMORE March 2021: How crazy is crazy!? Guess what “SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO” is?

This ratio is commonly used to decide if the market is “Buyers, Balanced, Sellers and Overheated. CMHC defines a housing market as “Overheated” when the ratio is over 85%, while 60% and over is considered seller’s market.  Our ratio is 100.16%  now! I do not think I need to say anything more… 

The question I am being asked most recently is “How much will 1,2,3... bedroom home cost me? Or what can I get for $500k, 800k, 1M?  So, using RE Stats...


Migration to small ATTRACTIVE cities or towns (Canmore) was always a dream of many... Now they really can. Why? Read more.

“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.”—George Bernard Shaw

For years people were leaving rural areas for big cities in search of entertainment and jobs and lifestyle which urban living offers. And those who went mostly for well-paid jobs had to venture into nature over weekends to find what I really call the LIFESTYLE;-).  Not any more. The COVID 19 proved to us that technological advances such as cloud computing...

It's not just the Bank of Canada you need to watch, it's bond markets.

 Our Governments have good intentions when they are trying to let us believe that they will not raise interest rates soon, but they are not in full control!

 Peter Lynch once famously said: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."

I would like to borrow his wisdom and apply it to the current real estate market in Canmore. #Canmore is unique because it offers its beautiful #lifestyle...



If you want to move to Canmore in the future and you want to make sure that the quickly appreciating Canmore market will not run away from you, I have a plan for you. I found for my clients a house that will allow them to sleep well knowing that they can in the future either move into this property or exchange it for something suitable when their time comes to move in. Using this example as a template, I would be delighted to repeat this scenario with you.

Let’s do some math:



Opportunity in Alberta's future. Commodity supercycle coming.

Great Reset fans are not happy where your investment $ is going

Kevin Carmichael from Financial Post posted an article criticizing Canadians wager on real estate while the tech revolution advances.

He is concerned about how much money Canadians are pumping into the real estate market, how detrimental it is to the health of our economy and the productivity of our nation.

He writes how “embarrassing” it is that they are not betting on the digital and carbon-neutral economy...


Ray Dalio

My all-time guru Ray Dalio dropped that bomb at the annual meeting of business and political stars of the world at Davos. And he also made a plea to the world on Twitter: “I believe we are on the brink of a terrible civil war ... where we are at an inflection point between entering a type of hell of fighting or pulling back to work together for peace and prosperity.”

He also criticized the current stock market, where everybody wants in, not understanding principles of margin and ...


About inflation, hedging against it, and impact on interest rates.

There is a huge disconnect between the velocity of money and Employment Population Ratio. This fact will have an impact on inflation, interest rates, and what you can consider as a hedge against inflation when it finally strikes.

I have read a very good, logical, and very short article written by Vuk Vukovic published in Seeking Alpha. I picked up a few excerpts from it and then added my own comment in italics at the very end.  The article talks mainly about Bitcoin, but I do not believe...


Canmore in seller’s market … not just a town, it is a lifestyle!

 Good news: Prices are going up. Bad news: There is a very low inventory. We at RE/MAX Alpine Realty did some number crunching and situational analysis. At first, let’s have a quick look at some year over year trend comparisons (DOM=Days On Market, PSF= price per square foot):

Year over Year averages show a 5% increase in price:

2019 519 Sales, 69 DOM, Price $713,000

2020 663 Sales, 72 DOM, Price $748,000

Comparison of 4th quarter averages show a dramatic, 12%, increase in PSF:



Canadians on the move!

While it is definitely not an exodus, the re-location trend across the Canadian housing market is real. Based on anecdotal evidence in Canmore, about 28% of clients buying in Canmore are now “work from home and move away from big-city crowds". 

With all this action in the market, RE/MAX Canada expects average residential prices to rise 4% to 6% in 2021. In my opinion, Calgary will likely be on the lower side of the scale but for Canmore, I believe, will be the upper side.


Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.